If/when China Blocks the World

A F/friend recently brought my attention to a disturbing article in the Guardian by Mark Lynas: 'How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room.' (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/22/copenhagen-climate-change-mark-lynas)

I was a skeptic of the 'blame China' narrative offered by the likes of Gordon Brown. Though I like to think of myself as someone who avoids the 'blame game,' I am more certainly more comfortable with blaming Western oil companies than a complex country which I do not pretend to understand.

I was not in the room that Lynas was in. But I believe him. And I believe that China is a very smart super power. Lynas details how China first did not do the rest of the world the courtesy of sending their top people to the discussion with the other global powers and then continually blocked any resolution that the West (ie, Obama) put forward - including the Western powers stating their own emission targets. Why? To make Obama and the Western super powers look bad - and to stop the COP process from getting so powerful that China's own economic growth would be curtailed by their policies.

International negotiations are complicated, to say the least. I do not agree with the fundamental processes the COP has in place. I support a more regional-based system, such as proposed by Larry Susskind (his blog is quite interesting: www.theconsensusbuildingapproach.blogspot.com). But let's say, just for the moment, that Lynas' analysis is accurate. China played a significant role in blocking the negotiations, and used certain developing nations (such as Sudan)to serve their own interests for the purpose of strengthening their own political-economic position and weakening the COP process (again to protect their own interests.) This is the same country which America is deeply indebted to, which continues to have economic growth (and with it increasing global political power, especially as other countries struggle to recover from the Financial crisis), which has increasing interest in natural resources of other countries, especially in Africa, and which many claim is becoming The Global Superpower. While I'm (again) skeptical of that, there is no doubt of the global power shift we have been witnessing in the past year. And this is a complex, quickly changing, immensely diverse and in many ways beautiful culture, one which, for many Westerners, is utterly foreign. It is also one of the leaders in wind and has a significant market share in solar - I wish the US and the UK were making the kind of investments in renewable energy and in R& D that China is.

But what do these shifts in power mean for Quakers and Fellow travelers? What does this mean for those who seek to build a strong global civil society to hold its leaders accountable, and to ensure a sustainable (survivable) future? China isn't known for its transparency. It's not known for a thriving democracy. Or a respect of human rights. Or a thriving civil society (though that is also changing, and Chinese environmental organizations are increasing). If global civil society can bring all their heads of state to the negotiation table (a significant accomplishment) and then China doesn't show up - what then? Do those immense civil society efforts count for nothing because the tiger in the room didn't feel like playing our game?

Lynas is afraid that is exactly what it means. One thing I know for sure is that we can't ignore China. Our analysis and our actions must include not only what to do to ensure shifts in Western socio-political-economy, but what can be done to shift China to be as concerned with global survival as they are with their own economic success. Which is not easy. In fact, the thought of it makes my head spin.

But I've a rather unpleasant knack for a good imagination. I can imagine technical and trade partnerships between China and the West (both the US and Europe) which could lead to unprecedented creativity, innovation, and the potential for survival. And I can imagine warfare of one kind or another between the 'West' and China (and its allies). Perhaps not immediately. But climate change invites us to tie bonds - either with or against one another.

Even as I talk about the importance of thinking East-West, I don't want to paint the world in clear binary oppositions - I don't think that's accurate, nor does it sit well with my faith. India, South Africa, Brazil, and even little states like the Maldives are shifting their roles as well. I do not think that civil society is worthless just because big superpowers such as China who care little for NGOs are beginning to flex their new-found strength.

And all of this doesn't let any of us off the hook. We need to do the right thing regardless of what others are - or are not - doing. I'd like to see the US leading by example - even if it seems like economic suicide - if the US stops buying products made by fossil fuels (a big 'if') China won't make them (or at least not as many of them). My intention here is to highlight the need to shift some of our thinking about power (and thus where and how to witness) in the global system. And part of shifting our imagination must include looking at the mirror, as well as out the window.